No country can meet all its food needs on its own. The global food system depends on a complex network of food, inputs, animal feed, logistics, regional or global conflicts and trade channels. Even the largest exporting countries, at one time or another, can suffer from a disruption in their supply chain, climate change, a conflict … which will have repercussions on the global food supply. China depends on Iranian oil, Brazil on fertilizer imports, etc. Forced to reduce their exports, they increase the volatility of the global food market. Geopolitics has abruptly entered the world of agriculture.
The intrusion of geopolitics is a key element of the 21st century, whereas it was considered external to agriculture. Today, it is a direct determinant of prices, supplies, crop choices and food security.
The FAO has, moreover, just devoted its report, State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2026, to this issue. Global agricultural trade increased fivefold between 2000 and 2024. But this integration also makes food systems more exposed to conflicts, trade crises and other shocks.
Agriculture is becoming an instrument of power
We are witnessing a race to control the resources essential to producing, transporting and marketing food. Six resources in particular are the subject of competition and conflicts: land and water, fertilizers, seeds and genetics, energy, maritime routes and ports, and markets and currencies. A farmer can suffer the effects of these conflicts thousands of kilometers away from home.
Fertilizers are emblematic of these upheavals
The global fertilizer system is extremely concentrated. For nitrogen, natural gas is needed. For phosphorus, mineral resources are highly concentrated. Potash is dominated by a few major producers.
China sharply reduced its exports of nitrogen fertilizers in 2024-2025 to prioritize its domestic market. Russia and Belarus are major players in potash, but their exports are affected by sanctions.
Thus, food sovereignty begins in part with sovereignty over inputs.
Ukraine, revealing the vulnerability of the food system
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showed how two countries that are relatively peripheral in agricultural terms have taken on a disproportionate dimension in the global markets for wheat, corn, sunflower oil and fertilizers. Above all, it showed the importance of trade routes. Agriculture depends as much on cultivated land as on ports, straits and ships.
Latest example: the Strait of Hormuz
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have simultaneously affected energy, fertilizers and maritime transport. The FAO estimates that the strait accounts for around 35% of global crude oil exports, 20% of LNG and a significant share of fertilizers and sulfur. The shockwave of the war is transmitted to oil and gas, then to agricultural production costs, to lower yields and, finally, to higher food prices.
Regional overview
- China. It is becoming a powerful producer without becoming a major exporter. It is, in fact, a gigantic importer of soybeans, corn, meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and animal feed. Despite its great production capacity, it is forced to find ways to secure its supplies. It is no longer enough to produce; it is also necessary to be able to obtain supplies.
- The United States and China: American soybeans feed Chinese livestock. Soybeans are an important element of the Sino-American tariff war. A shipment of soybeans can become a diplomatic instrument.
- Europe is also confronted with this new geopolitical situation. It is at the same time an agricultural power, a major exporter, a major importer and dependent on certain inputs and resources. Its agri-food trade has reached record levels: €188.6 billion in imports in 2025 for a trade surplus of €49.9 billion. But behind these exchanges lies a geopolitical fragility in terms of strategic autonomy, food security and the conflicting interests of farmers.
- Africa is the continent that suffers the most damage from geopolitical upheavals. A large part of Africa is simultaneously an importer of cereals, fertilizers and energy, a user of maritime transport, while suffering the effects of currency fluctuations. The continent is therefore exposed to several cascading shocks: energy, freight, fertilizers, production costs and fertilizers, lower yields, higher imports, deterioration of the trade balance. It is a vicious geopolitical circle. But Africa has strategic assets to take the path towards its food sovereignty.
