WILLAGRI
In 2024/2025, Russia is expected to export 46.1 million tons of wheat compared to an estimated 52.2 million tons a year earlier. This information was reported on June 28 by SovEcon, a company specializing in agricultural consulting.
According to the firm, this reduced stock is the result of a harvest affected by frost in May, which prompted the government to declare a state of emergency in 10 regions of the country, as well as hot and dry conditions in some winter wheat-producing areas.
After two consecutive seasons exceeding 90 million tons, Russian production is expected to drop to 80.7 million tons this season, according to SovEcon. Although the former USSR is expected to retain its status as the world’s leading exporter, the anticipated contraction is part of a broader context of tightening global trade.
Except for the USA and Argentina, all other members of the top 7 wheat exporters, namely the European Union (EU), Canada, Australia, and Ukraine, are also expecting declines in their sales during the new campaign starting this month.
This situation is expected to lead to the first contraction in global wheat exports since 2017/2018 despite a record harvest of over 790 million tons, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Source: Agence Ecofin