2026 will go down in human and agricultural history as the year when the world began to (re)build its food reserves on a massive scale. This phenomenon is driven both by governments (through the accumulation of strategic reserves) and by households. This so-called “food rearmament” is the result of multiple, insatiable pressures of various kinds. The term itself highlights that food has become a pillar of national security, on par with defense. This movement is deeply paradoxical at a time when 673 million people are struggling to access food.
Geopolitical instability and the end of market fluidity
Old and new conflicts, along with the emergence of new geopolitical flashpoints, have eroded—if not entirely destroyed—confidence in the ability of global markets to maintain smooth food trade during acute crises. “Just-in-time” delivery can no longer be taken for granted.
This concern is reflected in the relatively recent emergence and success of the concept of “food sovereignty.” Countries such as India, Indonesia, and China have increased their grain reserves—including wheat and rice—to record levels. Indonesia, for example, has built historically high rice stocks (4 million tons), breaking records from the past forty years. The shared objective of these countries is to shield their populations from violent market shocks.
The resurgence of protectionism follows the same logic. Some exporting countries restrict or ban foreign sales of their products in order to preserve domestic consumption, thereby encouraging importing countries to stockpile whenever possible.
Global grain stocks are reaching record highs: 916.3 million tons of cereals, representing a 5.7% increase compared to the previous year. Global rice production is up by 1.6% for the 2025–2026 season, reaching 559 million tons.
Climate change and harvest unpredictability
Climate disruption is no longer a theoretical threat. It is already producing devastating effects on crop volumes and yields. Extreme shocks—the increasing frequency of droughts and floods—make harvests uncertain from one year to the next. Building reserves helps absorb these shocks and smooth unpredictable fluctuations. Rising input costs, along with volatile fertilizer and energy prices, further increase uncertainty around future production, encouraging the storage of what has already been produced.
Persistent inflation of staple foods
Although recent FAO statistics indicate that inflation is slowing in some parts of the world, the prices of staple food products remain high. Inflation encourages anticipation of future price increases. Governments and households alike adopt savings strategies. Buying non-perishable goods today helps protect against tomorrow’s price hikes. Since 2020, food price inflation has consistently exceeded general inflation.
Logistics and supply chains
Recent crises have exposed the fragility of land and maritime routes. To avoid shortages during health crises or the blockage of major strategic straits, international traders and governments are increasing inventory sizes, shifting from just-in-time stock management (minimal inventories) to safety stock strategies.
The paradox of “food rearmament”
While global food production is increasing, access to food remains a fierce struggle: 673 million people (8.2% of the world’s population) suffered from hunger in 2024–2025. The number of people facing acute food insecurity has surged by 20% since 2020, mainly due to military conflicts (Sudan, Ukraine, Gaza).
To counter the vulnerabilities of food rearmament in 2026, governments are activating three strategic levers:
- Budgetary subsidies:
There is a global trend toward increased agricultural subsidies. France, for example, has launched an ambitious food sovereignty strategy currently being finalized. Indonesia increased its food security budget by 45.5% in 2026, reaching $12 billion to achieve full self-sufficiency. - Logistics:
Reducing food waste (one-third of global production is lost) through investments in storage and logistics infrastructure. - Climate:
Reforming crop insurance systems and investing in resilient seeds to stabilize yields in the face of climate change.
