Walid Battal
Scientists from the German research institutions TUM (Technical University of Munich) and PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) have developed an innovative method to predict tipping points in complex systems, particularly applied to the Earth’s climate. This method has been successfully tested on the rapid desertification of the Sahara, which was once a lush region before becoming arid about 6,000 years ago due to abrupt changes in Earth’s orbit.
The new approach developed by Andreas Morr and Professor Niklas Boers aims to refine early cataclysmic warnings by accounting for perceived temporal correlations in climatic disruptions, unlike traditional methods that assume weather conditions on one day are independent of those on the preceding day.
These scientists have applied a new early detection method to the desertification of the Western Sahara, identifying an imminent alert before the disappearance of vegetation. This alert precisely indicates the tipping point caused by changes in Earth’s orbit.
Their method enhances monitoring of desertification and response to potential tipping points affecting ecosystems, thus anticipating extreme climate events and catastrophes and improving preparation strategies. It significantly helps protect natural systems and human societies from the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.